Will Ofsted’s new framework mean a dip in Sats results?

Finally, the Sats are over and we can talk about what was on the test papers. Except, of course, now they’re in the past, it’s half term, and we’ve all moved on to focus on other things, from residential visits to end-of-year productions. How quickly the focus changes. A headteacher asks the question in Tes.

I can’t help but wonder, though, whether this year might see the high point in attainment results for the next few years. After a wildly erratic start to the new-style tests in 2016 (nobody mention the warthogs milling around in bewilderment: it still brings me out in a rash), it seems that we’ve broadly got used to expectations, the test designers have settled into their groove and each cohort of children has had a longer opportunity to study the new curriculum.

In an ideal world, we’d all be delighted with the shift in focus of inspections to explore the full depth and breadth of the curriculum. We’d be celebrating the fact that the inspectorate is finally going to pay attention to something beyond the tested subjects of English and maths. The trouble is, we’ve all been hostage to that system for so long that we’ve become part of the problem.

The “arms race” of results has driven all but the very bravest of schools to give a weighting to the statutory assessment subjects that they might not otherwise have given. You only have to look at the decline in science attainment over the past decade to see the impact on the curriculum of whether a subject is in or out of that important tested group.

The drive towards the narrowing of the curriculum was inexorable. As soon as one school in the area decided to focus on driving up attainment, so the others had to switch tactics to keep up. Nationally the results crept up, and so the focus narrowed yet more, as every school strove to avoid ending up at the bottom of the heap. Booster sessions, Easter revision, additional teachers for Year 6 – all sorts of strategies popped up to ensure that vital extra percentage point each year for fear of falling foul of the inspectors or whoever else chose to judge us.

But the new Ofsted inspection framework may change that. If the focus of inspections switches school leaders’ attention to the wider subjects, then perhaps we can expect to see results plateau – or maybe even dip – as time is returned (rightfully) to the foundation subjects. Perhaps it will take another year or two, as things right themselves, but wouldn’t it be great to see that recalibration?

Read more Will Ofsted’s new framework mean a dip in Sats results? 

Are you up for some education recalibration? Please tell us your thoughts in comments or via Twitter ~ Tamsin

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Categories: DfE, Exams, Learning, Ofsted, Primary and Teaching.


  1. Phil E

    I can’t imagine they will result in a dip in SATs results. Ultimately league tables focus the minds of staff on getting good results which in turn increased pupil numbers. This framework may penalise those focused on that aim of churning out ‘SATs clones’ or experts in taking test papers.
    I did find it interesting that good / outstanding schools are less likely to achieve higher SATs results because parents take their foot off the pedal and do less home focus, thinking the school have it covered.

    SATs and Ofsted are definitely going to product conflict, either a school will be black marked by not having a broad curriculum, go into special measures but then fail at producing good SATs results, or have poor SATs results and go down in the league tables, lower pupil numbers, financial issues or have questions raised about this by Ofsted. It’s a downward spiral either way.

    Ultimately it’s effectively a lose – lose situation for schools, impossible to please all the people.

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